Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, June 20th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending Wednesday’s post-FOMC weakness. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 131 points and the Nasdaq up 36 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.41%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 of a discount point if compared to Wednesday’s early pricing. The financial markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday.

7/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.41%

131

Dow

42,303

36

NASDAQ

19,582

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

This week’s economic calendar concluded late this morning with the release of May’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Conference Board announced a decline of 0.1% in the indicators, meaning they are predicting modestly slower economic activity over the next few months. This matched what analysts were expecting. However, a 0.4% downward revision to April’s reading allows us to label the report slightly favorable for rates, even though it isn’t having a noticeable impact this morning.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Next week brings us plenty that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. Economic data begins Monday morning with the release of May’s Existing Home Sales report and continues throughout the week with at least one piece of data set to be posted each day. The more important releases are set for later in the week, including a key inflation reading Friday morning. We also have two semi-annual congressional appearances by Fed Chairman Powell that will draw lots of attention midweek.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

On a related note, now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, the Fed’s mandatory quiet period has expired. This means Fed members are free to speak about the economy and other relevant topics. There is a large number of speeches scheduled next week that may draw a reaction in the bond market. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Alex Hammond

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